Turmeric prices have been on the up for months now. Many traders and factories have been found to be holding stocks of the previous crop, and unwilling to release much of this season’s crop. They believe that demand is high, and the new season crop isn’t as good. Naturally, prices will rise. We’ve heard some traders say they expect prices to increase over 70-80% by October!
Some buyers have also been complaining that new crop goods have moisture content that is too high, so they still aren’t willing to buy… another reason for the price rise. We noted unusual rains in the last 1-2 months in India, and this is one of the leading causes for the high moisture and poor crop. Indian monsoon season doesn’t normally arrive until summer, yet there were several days of continuous heavy rains in March, and some bad rains in April surrounding the turmeric growing regions.
According to estimates by the Agriculture Deparment, turmeric production this year in India is about 3.7 million bags vs 5.2 million bags last year, a decline of almost 30%.
From our buying and export point of view, we’ve also noticed buyers unwilling to move much for high pricing, as the price jump is a shock. But if the supply side has their way, this price will soon have to become accustomed to.